Victory Is Mine

Who thinks King Kong banks over $100MM in its first five days?

I do stocks for a living. Essentially we analyze numbers and shit and try to decide if the market is pricing things correctly. So I've never done this for movies before, and I figure what the hell?

Through history, not a lot of movies have grossed over $100MM in their first five days at the box office. That said, 11 of the 13 which have accomplished it have done so since 2002. Half of those are Star Wars or Lord of the Rings.

Tradesports is currently offering a contract which allows you to wager on whether or not Kong hits $100MM in its first five days. As I write this the bid is 20 and the ask is 55. A wide spread, but even hitting the 55 bid gives the possibility for a decent profit. So what do I think?

King Kong is opening in 3,567 theaters, a lower number than any of those top 13 except two of the Star Wars flicks and Passion of the Christ. It's not a huge difference versus the average, perhaps 3% or so, but that could make all the difference. It is, however, the highest screen count (7,500) ever for a Universal release, and they're trying to temper expectations down to the level of the first Lord of the Rings, which grossed about $75MM in its first five days. Of course they're not going to overpromise on this one, and I'm sure they're inwardly hoping for $100MM at the very least - it is clear that $75MM will be an absolute bottom for this thing, as simple inflation since the original LOTR's release in 01 would indicate. Further, Peter Jackson was a relative unknown in 2001 (at least to the masses), but after the Rings series his name sells.

Even further, everyone and their mother has given this thing a glowing review, adding even more to the hype that is sure to surround this release.

The movie geeks at Box Office Mojo are projecting $82MM for King Kong - over the weekend ONLY. So we get an extra two days. IF they're off by 10%, and you can check their historical accuracy here, KK would still only need $25MM over today and tomorrow in order to make it through the $100MM barrier. That would be a bit tough, but certainly doable, especially since tonight's numbers will be an enormously inflated Wednesday total simply from the hype leading up to this. In fact six films have actually accomplished the $25MM single day mark on a Wednesday.

If you dig on the Box Office Mojo forecast history linked above, you'll see that the audience underestimated Potter and Narnia's recent releases, and it's a good bet they're underestimating this one as well. Even still, if I were long this contract I'd be happy with an $82MM weekend, leaving only $18MM needed today and tomorrow.

Oh what fun it is to ride...yada yada yada! (By the way, in case you hadn't figured it out yet, I am suggesting that going long this contract would be the best bet. If you have to pay 75 cents or more for it, I wouldn't do it, but at coin-flip odds or better? No question.)

By the way, did you guys know that Andy Serkis, aka Gollum, is playing King Kong??

posted by Publius @ 6:37 PM