Victory Is Mine

Update on Bears-Vikes convergence

A couple weeks ago I threw out the idea of shorting the Bears to win the NFC North at 83 cents and going long the Vikes at 17 cents, based on their respective schedules in the following three weeks. Since then, The Bears have gone 2-1 (wins over Tampa and Green Bay, and a loss to Pittsburgh) while the Vikes have expectedly gone 3-0.

As I didn't expect the Bears to beat Tampa, this threw a bit of a wrench in the argument. That said, the Vikes held up their end of the bargain and as it stands, the Bears need to lose to either the Falcons at home this week or the Packers at Lambeau next week (neither is likely, in my opinion) and the Vikes need to beat the Steelers at home AND the Ravens on the road, in order to set up a winner-take-all Week 17 clash between the Vikes and Bears at the Metrodome.

All that said, the trade actually has made money thus far if you put it on. You could have sold that spread at 66 cents and can now buy it back at 53. It's too bad; had the Buccaneers been able to connect on a 27 yard field goal late in the 4th, that game would have gone to OT with Tampa having plenty of momentum after a late surge. And the spread on the trade would likely be a lot closer to 20. Ahh well, it was a fun exercise in market psychology, with the market clearly having undervalued the ability of Brad Johnson to deliver against a very weak schedule (Browns, Lions, and Rams).

posted by Publius @ 6:30 PM