Victory Is Mine

Mathematics

Currently on Tradesports, the contract for the Bears to win the NFC North is trading at 83 (payoff is 100). Contract for the Vikings to win the NFC North is 17. The Bears are 7-3, and the Vikes are 5-5. Next three games for each team are:

Bears
@ Tampa
vs Green Bay
@ Pittsburgh

Vikings
vs Cleveland
@ Detroit
vs St Louis

So three weeks from now, there seems to be a rather good chance that the Bears are sitting at 8-5 and the Vikes 8-5 as well.

Now, I'm not saying that the Vikes will win the division, but you don't have to hold these contracts to expiry; just hold them till the odds adjust to what you feel is correct. Given that three weeks from now, there will be three games left in the season and I think there's a decent chance the Bears and Vikes have the same record (don't laugh, by the way, Vikes aren't awesome but have won 4 of their last 5), the odds will simply HAVE to be closer to 50/50. They certainly won't be 83/17.

So if you're a betting man, and I'm not saying I am, you might consider your options for making money on that convergence.

posted by Publius @ 2:32 PM